Know your competitors: Nordic, German-speaking, Central-Eastern European and Polish mills

Exporters meet different kinds of competitors in different markets. The portal's country profiles give a compact picture. All figures below are tagged with country and year; where a source gave a regional or provisional value, this is stated.

Nordic mills: export-driven, with log costs under pressure

Sweden produced 17.8 million m³ of softwood sawn timber in 2023 and exported 14.0 million m³ (Skogsindustrierna). Worked out here, exports were about 79% of production (14.0 / 17.8). The main 2023 destinations were the UK (19%), Egypt (10%), the USA and the Netherlands (8% each). In January-November 2025 Statistics Sweden data show almost 12.7 million m³ exported, with Great Britain about 2.52 million m³ and Egypt 1.15 million m³; the USA rose 22% and Morocco 24%.

Finland exported 8.4 million m³ of sawn goods in 2023 (Luke), with Egypt the largest buyer by volume. In 2025-2026 Swedish and Finnish trade press described a squeeze: high sawlog costs against weak sawn prices, and closures such as Stora Enso's Veitsiluoto sawmill. Pine was reported oversupplied relative to demand while spruce was more stable (Fastmarkets, August 2026; single trade-press source).

Germany, Austria, Switzerland

Germany's 2023 softwood sawn production was about 22.9 million m³ with exports of about 10 million and imports of 3.1 million (the source labels these 2023). That implies apparent consumption of about 16.0 million m³ (22.9 + 3.1 - 10.0), ignoring stock changes. The USA was the largest German sawn softwood export market in 2024, though the unit in the source slide was not stated. Austria exported 5.93 million m³ in 2024, with Italy the dominant European buyer. German sawmills in 2025 complained of log shortage after the end of the bark-beetle salvage wave, and German industry representatives called the EUDR unworkable for fragmented forest ownership.

Central-Eastern Europe and the Baltics

Eurostat figures (read through a secondary mirror) show wide differences in export orientation. For 2023, coniferous sawnwood in thousand m³:

Dividing exports by production gives about 40% for Czechia, 51% for Estonia, 98% for Latvia and 34% for Romania. The articles caution that exports include re-exports and the two series come from different sources, so the ratios are indicative. They still show that Latvia is an export economy for sawn softwood while Romania and Czechia use more at home or in further processing. Romanian and Slovak mills can also supply beech and oak, which do not compete with Nordic lumber.

Poland

Poland is a large producer with a heavily state-influenced log market: the State Forests (LP) manage about 77% of forest area and sell most industrial wood through orders and the Portal Leśno-Drzewny. In 2024 (provisional, Eurostat) Poland produced 4,195 thousand m³ of sawnwood, imported 775 and exported 891, so about 21% of production was exported and apparent consumption was about 4.08 million m³. Polish tender rules reported in 2025 favour domestic processors, and LP's FSC certification largely lapsed in 2023-2024, making FSC-certified domestic roundwood scarce; the current position was not verified.

The species shift

Spruce is declining in Germany, Czechia and Switzerland after the beetle years, and several sources point to more pine, fir, Douglas fir and larch. EOS notes that spruce and pine can meet the same strength classes in some applications, but the review warns that similar strength classes do not guarantee equal grading yield, durability, treatability, dimensions or market acceptance.

Worked example: a competitor profile

For a target market (say Egypt), fill in a one-page profile: who ships there (Sweden 1.15 million m³, Russia 550,000 m³ in 2024, Romania in the MENA trade), their likely cost pressure, which certification they can show, and which species they offer. Then decide where you can compete: price, species, service or compliance readiness.

Key points

• Sweden exported about 79% of its 2023 sawn softwood production; Latvia's exports were about 98% of production, Romania's about 34% (own calculations from source figures).
• Nordic and Central European mills face high log costs against weak lumber prices.
• Poland's log supply is shaped by State Forests rules; about 21% of 2024 production was exported.
• Species are shifting from spruce towards pine and others; substitution is not one-for-one.
• Export ratios are indicative because trade and production series differ.