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The European sawn timber market 2020-2026: production, trade and prices

Flagship review of the European sawn timber market 2020-2026: Eurostat production by country, EOS and ISC consumption and trade data, the 2021 price boom and 2022-25 correction, bark-beetle salvage wood, Russia/Belarus sanctions, construction, energy and institutional outlooks, with sources and limits flagged.

Kraj / region badania lub danych: Europe (UNECE region), by country

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Summary: a cycle from record to trough

European sawmills went through one of the sharpest cycles in their modern history between 2020 and 2026. In 2020-2021, strong renovation and United States demand, plus a flood of bark-beetle salvage logs, pushed output and prices to records. From late 2021 prices fell, and in 2022 the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russian and Belarusian timber and an energy price shock reshaped supply and demand. Since 2023, consumption has been weak and log costs in the north high, so margins were described by the industry itself as under pressure in 2025-2026.

This article draws on open sources: Eurostat, the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS), Destatis, Luke (Finland), Statistics Sweden, Forest Research (UK), UNECE summaries and trade press reporting conference data. Every figure carries year, unit and source. "Europe" means the countries named in each table, not the full UNECE region. "EOS countries" means EOS members, whose number changed (12 in 2021 reporting, 14 in 2025 reporting). Own calculations are labelled. Provisional, estimated or unverified figures are flagged.

Key points:

  • EOS countries produced about 86 million m³ of softwood lumber at the 2021 peak and about 78-79 million m³ in 2025, roughly 9-10% less (EOS, ISC 2025; EUWID, July 2026).
  • European softwood consumption in 2025 was about 13% below 2021 and 2.5% above 2024 (EOS, ISC 2025).
  • German softwood lumber output fell from 25.3 million m³ (2021) to just under 20.4 million m³ (2025, preliminary), and fell a further 14% in the first quarter of 2026 (Destatis).
  • Baltic and Romanian output fell far more than Nordic output (Eurostat table below).
  • Salvage logging after bark-beetle outbreaks supplied many Central European logs in 2018-2022 and has since receded.
  • German spruce sawfalling was priced at about €310-325/m³ in late 2025 (Fastmarkets), after a 2021 spike and a 2022 correction.

Data sources and how comparable they are

No single statistical series is accepted by all experts. Eurostat's dataset "Sawnwood and panels" (for_swpan) is harmonised and includes sleepers, but many values are estimates. EOS publishes aggregates at its summer General Assembly and at the International Softwood Conference (ISC) each October; they are revised as membership and inputs change. National offices such as Destatis use their own survey populations. Trade media (Timber Online/Holzkurier, EUWID, Fastmarkets) report these data and their own surveys.

Two examples. For Germany in 2021, Eurostat gives 26.4 million m³ (all sawnwood, estimated) while Destatis, via Timber Online, gives 25.3 million m³ of softwood lumber including planed timber. For EOS countries, a June 2024 release forecast 79.5 million m³ for 2024, while EUWID reported in July 2026 an outturn of 80.6 million m³ for 2024 and 79.4 million m³ for 2025. These gaps reflect coverage and revision.

The UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review 2023-2024 (ECE/TIM/SP/58) appeared in 2024, and the COFFI forecast for 2025-2026 in April 2026 (UN iLibrary). The sawn softwood chapters could not be read here; UNECE figures below come from summaries and are marked.

Production by country, 2020-2024: Eurostat

As a baseline, Eurostat's EU-27 total for 2019 is 109.0 million m³, imputed by Eurostat; no EU-27 total is published in the same dataset for 2020-2024 in the extract used here.

The table below uses Eurostat's harmonised series for total sawnwood (softwood and hardwood together, including sleepers), in thousand m³. It covers the countries asked for in the brief. Flags are Eurostat's: "e" means estimated, "p" provisional, "c" confidential.

Country 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Change 2021 to 2024 (own calculation)
Germany 26,219 (e) 26,438 (e) 25,342 (e) 23,789 23,225 -12.2%
Sweden 18,500 19,140 18,970 17,900 17,900 -6.5%
Finland 10,916 11,966 11,200 10,491 10,976 -8.3%
Austria 10,475 10,764 10,369 9,386 9,706 -9.8%
Poland 4,707 5,039 4,815 4,191 4,195 (p) -16.8%
Czechia no data 5,160 4,942 4,421 4,732 -8.3%
Romania 5,453 5,373 4,819 3,545 confidential (c) -34.0% for 2021 to 2023
Latvia 3,899 4,438 3,822 3,056 3,056 (e) -31.1% for 2021 to 2023
Estonia 1,750 1,850 1,700 1,450 1,485 -19.7%
Lithuania 1,038 1,293 1,649 1,624 1,632 +26.3%

Source: Eurostat, dataset for_swpan (production, total species, thousand m³; dataset last updated 2026-01-04 per the response metadata), retrieved on 2026-10-26 through the Eurostat dissemination interface. The changes are own calculations. Latvia's 2024 value is identical to 2023 and flagged as estimated, so it should not be read as a measured stable year.

Three patterns stand out.

First, the two giants, Germany and Sweden, together produced about 45.6 million m³ in 2021 and about 41.1 million m³ in 2024 (own calculation from the table). Germany fell harder than Sweden. A plausible reason, which is an interpretation and not a statistic, is that German mills had relied on spruce from salvage logging that has since receded (see the bark-beetle section).

Second, the Baltic states and Romania show much larger declines. Latvian output fell by 31% between 2021 and 2023, and Romania's by 34% between 2021 and 2023 (both own calculation from Eurostat). The three Baltic states combined produced about 7.6 million m³ in 2021 and about 6.1 million m³ in 2023 (own calculation), a fall of about 19%. Lithuania is the exception, with a 59% increase from 2020 to 2022 (own calculation). These swings are consistent with the end of Russian and Belarusian log and lumber supply chains and with high local log costs, but this article has not verified the causes with a primary source for each country.

Third, 2024 shows a mild rebound in several countries (Finland +4.6%, Austria +3.4%, Czechia +7.0% versus 2023, own calculation), while Germany continued to fall.

Germany: the largest producer in a four-year slide

Germany is the largest softwood lumber producer in Europe. According to Destatis, as reported by Timber Online in April 2026, German softwood lumber production including planed timber was 24.3 million m³ in 2022, 22.9 million m³ in 2023, 22.4 million m³ in 2024 and just under 20.4 million m³ in 2025 (2025 data preliminary), down 9% year on year. The 2021 volume of 25.3 million m³ was the largest full-year volume ever recorded in Germany. Compared with 2021, 2025 output was about 19.5% lower (own calculation).

Quarterly data show no recovery. In the fourth quarter of 2025, output was 4.7 million m³, the lowest quarterly volume in ten years. In the first quarter of 2026 it fell to 4.3 million m³, down 14% on the first quarter of 2025 (Destatis, via Timber Online, 6 July 2026). The first-quarter 2025 figure itself was revised between the two releases, from about 5.10 to about 5.03 million m³, which is a reminder that the latest data are preliminary.

A Timber Online teaser in July 2026 also reports that German softwood lumber exports in January to August 2026 were at their lowest level in eleven years and that six in ten sawmill companies in Austria and Germany expect a negative business situation. Only the headline of those items could be read, and the underlying data are therefore marked as unverified below.

Sweden and Finland: stable giants with different dynamics

Sweden produced 18.5 million m³ in 2020, 19.1 million m³ in 2021 and 17.9 million m³ in both 2023 and 2024 (Eurostat). EOS figures at ISC 2025 show 17.8 million m³ for 2024 and a forecast of 17.8 million m³ for 2025 and 2026. Swedish Forest Industries reported 2021 output up 1.9% to about 18.9 million m³ (provisional, via EUWID), a different series from Eurostat's.

Sweden is export oriented. In 2023 the United Kingdom took 19% of exports, Egypt 10%, the United States 8% and the Netherlands 8% (Swedish Forest Industries; the published shares sum to 103%). Statistics Sweden data for January-November 2025 (via Timber Online) show almost 12.7 million m³ exported, up just over 1%: Great Britain about 2.52 million m³ (-2%), the United States just under 1.2 million m³ (+22%), Egypt 1.15 million m³ (-9%), Poland 435,000 m³ (+12%), Morocco 407,000 m³ (+24%).

Finland produced 11.97 million m³ in 2021, 10.49 million m³ in 2023 and 10.98 million m³ in 2024 (Eurostat). EOS shows 11.7 million m³ for 2025 (+7%). Luke reported that sawmills used 27.2 million m³ of roundwood in 2025, up 7% (published 28 April 2026). The industry is restructuring: per Fastmarkets (July 2026), Stora Enso's Veitsiluoto sawmill (200,000 m³/year) is closing, binderholz plans to buy Kuhmo (about 500,000 m³/year), and Keitele will lift capacity from 420,000 to 600,000 m³/year by autumn 2027.

A Luke forecast from October 2023 expected Finnish sawn timber output in 2024 to fall to about 10 million m³; Eurostat later gave 10.98 million m³, a rise on 2023. Short-term forecasts have missed direction before.

Austria, Czechia and Poland: Central Europe after the beetle

Austria's sawn timber production in the Eurostat series was 10.8 million m³ in 2021, 9.4 million m³ in 2023 and 9.7 million m³ in 2024. The Austrian wood industry association reported 9.4 million m³ of sawn softwood and hardwood for 2023, down 10% (WKO annual press conference, 2024). Statistik Austria's production value for the wood industry as a whole rose from €8.10 billion in 2020 to €10.12 billion in 2021 and €11.95 billion in 2022, then fell to €9.74 billion in 2023 (Statistik Austria, Branchenbericht 2023/2024, via WKO). This covers the whole wood industry, not just sawmills, and is a value measure influenced by prices.

Timber Online's Holzkurier survey of Austrian softwood sawmills processing over 50,000 m³ per year reported log cutting (input, not lumber output) of about 14.7 million m³ in 2022, just over 14 million m³ in 2023, 13.96 million m³ in 2024 and 14.3 million m³ in 2025 (reported plus estimates), with some mills targeting a total near 16 million m³ in 2026. The article notes that log supply was a major issue in 2025 and raw material prices were high.

Czechia produced 5.2 million m³ in 2021, 4.4 million m³ in 2023 and 4.7 million m³ in 2024 (Eurostat; the 2020 value is missing). Poland's series is 5.0 million m³ in 2021, 4.2 million m³ in 2023 and 4.2 million m³ in 2024 (provisional). Poland is also a net importer in Eurostat's 2022 data: production of 4.81 million m³, imports of 1.49 million m³ and exports of 0.99 million m³, giving apparent consumption of about 5.3 million m³ (own calculation from Eurostat, 2022). Statistics Poland, as reported by EUWID in January 2024, gave 2.68 million m³ of sawnwood in January to November 2023, down 5.3%. That figure is much lower than Eurostat's annual total and probably uses a narrower statistical population; no reconciliation could be found, so the two should not be mixed.

Romania and the Baltic states

Romania's production fell from 5.45 million m³ in 2020 to 3.54 million m³ in 2023 in Eurostat's series; the 2024 value is confidential. Its hardwood component fell from 0.87 million m³ in 2020 to 0.81 million m³ in 2023 (Eurostat; 2024 confidential). The reasons commonly discussed in the trade press include tighter controls on illegal logging, log export constraints and weaker demand, but this article did not find a primary source that quantifies each cause, so it makes no causal claim.

For the Baltic states, the figures above show a 19% decline in combined output between 2021 and 2023. In the Latvian case, the decline from 4.44 million m³ in 2021 to 3.06 million m³ in 2023 is the steepest of any significant producer in the table.

Softwood versus hardwood

Softwood dominates, but the hardwood share varies: Germany's non-coniferous output in 2024 (0.82 million m³) was about 3.5% of its total, Romania's in 2023 (0.81 million m³) about 23% (own calculations from Eurostat). Hardwood followed a weaker path.

For UNECE Europe (including non-EU countries), the Forest Products Annual Market Review 2022-2023 reports sawn hardwood production of 13.4 million m³ in 2022 (-8.8%) and consumption of 12.9 million m³ (-8.7%). Overseas exports of oak, beech, maple, cherry and ash fell 6% to 1.41 million m³. EOS expected a further 3-5% fall in 2023 (UNECE/FAO 2023, via Dovetail Partners summary).

For EOS countries, hardwood output was about 6 million m³ in 2019, just above 5.5 million m³ in 2020 (pandemic, notably France and Germany) and close to 6.3 million m³ in 2021, up 13% and the highest since 2008 (Timber Industry News, source not named). These are not comparable with the UNECE totals.

Indicator (thousand m³) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Germany, non-coniferous sawnwood (Eurostat) 1,266 (e) 1,002 (e) 1,103 (e) 1,028 (e) 900 824
France, non-coniferous sawnwood (Eurostat) 1,254 (e) 1,133 1,313 (e) 1,437 (e) 1,198 (e) no data
Romania, non-coniferous sawnwood (Eurostat) 1,088 873 964 974 811 confidential
Germany, beech and oak lumber (Destatis via Timber Online; 2024 preliminary) 1,140 941 1,041 975 849 776

Sources: Eurostat for_swpan; Destatis via Timber Online, 1 April 2025. The German series differ in scope.

German beech and oak output fell about 32% from 2019 to 2024 (own calculation), and the fourth quarter of 2024 (174,000 m³) was the lowest quarter on record in that series.

Trade: exports and imports

Overall

EOS-reported apparent consumption of sawn softwood was 53.4 million m³ in 2023, down 8.6% from 58.4 million m³ in 2022 (EOS, June 2024). A later EUWID report (July 2026), on a revised series, gives 57.8 million m³ for 2024 and 58.3 million m³ for 2025 (+0.8%). Coverage differs, so the levels cannot be chained; the direction is a sharp fall in 2022-2023 and a flat period since.

ETTF projected consumption in eight European markets at 43.5 million m³ in 2025 and 43.9 million m³ in 2026. With the UK (8.8 million m³) and the USA (83.5 million m³ in 2025) the subtotal is 135.8 million m³; global consumption is put at 165.3 million m³ in 2025 and 168.9 million m³ in 2026 (EOS/ETTF forecasts, Timber Online, November 2025).

EU and United Kingdom

Imports to major European markets were 48.2 million m³ in 2024, with ETTF forecasts of 48.5 million m³ in 2025 and 46.1 million m³ in 2026 (Fastmarkets; country coverage not stated). EU sawn softwood exports to non-EU destinations were €6.5 billion in 2024, up 13% in the first half of 2025 (Fastmarkets, citing EU trade data).

UK sawnwood imports were 7,218 thousand m³ in 2020, 8,159 in 2021, 6,294 in 2022, 6,210 in 2023 and 6,313 in 2024, a 22.6% fall from 2021 to 2024 (own calculation; Forest Research, Forestry Statistics 2025). In 2024 UK softwood production was 3,151 thousand m³, imports 5,815, exports 215 and apparent consumption 8,751; hardwood consumption was 515.

United States

European shipments to the US rose 19% to €620 million in the first half of 2025 (Timber Online, ISC data). Sweden sent just under 1.2 million m³ in January-November 2025 (+22%). A 10% US tariff applies to European sawn softwood; EOS president Tommi Sneck said it is unlikely to seriously affect European producers but could disrupt trade flows. Forecasts (not outcomes): US imports down 10.7% to 22 million m³ in 2026 while US consumption rises 3.5% to 86.4 million m³ (Fastmarkets); North American overseas imports down about 1 million m³ (Forest Economic Advisors).

China and Russia

European shipments to China fell 37% to €85 million in the first half of 2025 (Fastmarkets). Russian exports were about 18.7 million m³ in 2024, roughly 40% below 2019, of which 11.2 million m³ (about 60%) went to China (Fastmarkets). Dovetail's summary of COFFI 2025 gives shares of 66% China, 19% Eurasian Economic Union, 8% Asia-Pacific and 7% MENA. The differences are unexplained and unverified. A Setra analyst said Russia supplies about 70% of China's imported lumber.

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt took 6.4% of extra-EU exports in 2024; EU shipments rose 8% to €240 million in the first half of 2025 (Fastmarkets). Russia shipped 1.7 million m³ to MENA in 2024, including 550,000 m³ to Egypt, so competition is intense.

Destination Share of extra-EU sawn softwood exports, 2024 Change in EU exports, H1 2025 Value H1 2025
United States 16.5% +19% €620 million
Japan 9.4% -7% €350 million
Egypt 6.4% +8% €240 million
China 2.2% -37% €85 million

Source: Fastmarkets, 6 November 2025, citing EU trade data and EOS at ISC 2025. The UK took 26% of non-EU deliveries in 2024 (same source; different basis).

Price cycles: boom, correction, plateau

The 2021 boom

EUWID reported that the average German sawn softwood price rose €25-30/m³ in the first quarter of 2021 and a further €30-50/m³ for April deliveries. By the end of May 2021 the average was about €90/m³ (roughly 30%) above mid-April (EUWID, 2 June 2021). In annual terms, German producer prices in 2021 were 77.3% higher than in 2020 for structural solid timber, 65.1% for roof battens and 61.4% for construction timber, against +10.5% for commercial products overall (Destatis via Vergabeblog). Finnish 2021 standing-sale prices were €66.1/m³ for spruce logs and €62.0/m³ for pine logs, real increases of 9% and 10% (Luke).

The 2022-2024 correction

German sawn softwood averaged about €208/m³ by end-November 2022, about 18% below a year earlier and back at early-2021 levels (EUWID). In December 2023 structural solid timber was 12% above December 2019, glulam 14% and raw planed timber for Italy 7%, while inflation in Austria and Germany over 2019-2023 was about 20% (Holzkurier, January 2024; inflation source not stated). Real prices were therefore below pre-pandemic. Holzkurier also derived a global softwood trade price fall from US$399/m³ to US$239/m³ in the first three quarters of 2023 (derived from trade value and volume, not an official statistic).

2025-2026: low plateau, high log costs

In November 2025, delivered spruce sawfalling (44-50 x 150 mm) was €310-325/m³ in Germany, €290-325/m³ in France and €295-315/m³ in the UK; Nordic timber in Germany was €50-60/m³ cheaper (Fastmarkets). Swedish spruce sawlogs in southern Sweden cost over SEK 1,400/m³ by the second quarter of 2025, more than double 2019. Finnish stumpage in October 2025 was about €76/m³ (pine) and €79/m³ (spruce), 16% and 14% above five-year averages (Fastmarkets, citing Luke). In July 2026 Luke standing-sale prices were €77.90/m³ (pine) and €83.14/m³ (spruce), 5.4% and 1.5% below July 2025 (Fastmarkets). High log cost against weak lumber prices is the core of the "profitability issues" EOS describes. In July 2026 German prices eased about 1.5% m/m and Central European producer stocks were high (Fastmarkets).

Period Indicator Value Source
Q1 2021 Rise, German sawn softwood +€25-30/m³ EUWID
Mid-Apr to end-May 2021 Rise, German sawn softwood about +€90/m³ (+30%) EUWID
2021 vs 2020 German producer price, structural solid timber +77.3% Destatis via Vergabeblog
End-Nov 2022 German sawn softwood, mean about €208/m³ EUWID
Dec 2023 vs Dec 2019 Structural solid timber +12% Holzkurier
Nov 2025 German spruce sawfalling 44-50 x 150 €310-325/m³ Fastmarkets

Note: the series are not one index; rows show changes and levels from different assessments and are indicative only.

Bark-beetle and salvage wood in Central Europe

For Germany, Destatis reports damage-related harvest of 60.1 million m³ in 2020, the record since 1990 and nearly three quarters of the harvest. It fell to 38.7 million m³ in 2023 and 27.3 million m³ in 2024 (-29.4%), or 44.7% of a total harvest of 61.2 million m³ (70.6 million m³ in 2023). Insect damage accounted for 16.8 million m³ in 2024, 27.2 million m³ in 2023 and 43.3 million m³ in 2020. Spruce, fir, Douglas fir and other softwood harvest was 37.7 million m³ in 2024, 39.2% below 2020. Saw timber was 33.3 million m³ (54.3%) of the 2024 harvest; energy wood (12.5 million m³) exceeded industrial wood for the first time since 2006 (Destatis via top agrar, 16 April 2025).

A 2021 Holzkurier analysis estimated Central European harvest at 88 million m³ a year in 2010-2014, 101 million m³ in 2015-2020, and 120 and 111 million m³ in 2019 and 2020. It projected the damaged-wood share falling from about 80% to about 60% by 2024-2025 (a projection). It gave German 2020 damaged wood as 66.2 million m³, versus Destatis' 60.1 million m³, probably reflecting different survey bases.

In Czechia, Lesy CR reported felling of 13.9 million m³ in 2019 and 14.4 million m³ in 2020 (damaged wood 9.6 and 9.8 million m³), then 11.4 million m³ in 2021, 9.2 million m³ in 2022 and 7.7 million m³ in 2023; planned harvest is about 8 million m³ a year for 2025-2029 (Timber Online, January 2025). The same article puts national harvest in 2021 at about 30 million m³, of which 26.3 million m³ (87%) was calamity-related. In Austria, 2020 damaged wood was about 5.8 million m³, of which 2.4 million m³ beetle (4.3 million m³ in 2019) (Holzkurier).

Interpretation, not quantified here: abundant salvage logs in 2019-2021 kept Central European log costs low and supported output and exports. Since 2022, fewer salvage logs and a shrinking spruce stock have, per trade press, tightened supply. At ISC 2025 the industry was reported to be shifting toward pine, and a presentation projected German spruce stock falling from 1.2 billion m³ (2012) to 300 million m³ (2100), a model projection. In July 2026 Fastmarkets reported that a log shortage in Germany weighed on KVH and that storm and wildfire salvage in France (about 42,000 ha burned in Gironde, about 3.5 million m³ of standing pine) would bring a compressed pine supply in autumn 2026. These are market reports, not official statistics.

Russia and Belarus: sanctions and the reordering of trade

Before 2022, Russia and Belarus supplied sawn softwood, birch plywood and other wood products to the EU. Belarus was sanctioned for wood imports by Council Regulation (EU) 2022/355 from 2 March 2022, and Russia by Article 3i of Council Regulation (EU) 833/2014, with the ban applying from 9 April 2022 and contracts concluded earlier allowed to run until 10 July 2022. Covered goods include HS chapter 44 (wood) (summary by certification consultancy Duracert, March 2023; original text in the EU Official Journal not read for this article). FSC withdrew all forest management and chain-of-custody certificates in Russia and Belarus by 8 April 2023, and PEFC classified such timber as conflict timber from 2 March 2022 (Duracert).

The effects were:

  • Russian production fell from more than 32 million m³ in 2021 to about 28 million m³ currently, while exports fell about 40% between 2019 and 2024 to 18.7 million m³ (Fastmarkets, November 2025).
  • Russian exports were redirected to China and the Middle East and North Africa (11.2 million m³ and 1.7 million m³ in 2024, Fastmarkets), where they compete with European supply.
  • Imports of Russian and Belarusian timber into the EU fell, as noted in the COFFI 2025 summary by Dovetail Partners.
  • The UNECE Forest Products Annual Market Review 2021-2022 abstract states that in the first half of 2022 sanctions reduced production in the EECCA subregion, while the war slowed consumption there.

Enforcement is an ongoing issue. Investigative reports (for example by OCCRP and Earthsight) alleged circumvention of the bans via Central Asia. These allegations were not examined here and are outside the scope of this article's verified data.

Construction demand

Sawn softwood demand follows new housing and renovation. The 2020-2021 boom coincided with strong renovation and low interest rates; from 2022 rates rose and housing activity fell (general background, not sourced here). EU building permits (floor area) fell 15% in 2023 and 2% in 2024 (Fastmarkets, citing EU data). Wood's share of German new residential permits rose from 20.4% (2020) to 24.1% (2024), and in Swedish multi-dwelling buildings from about 10% (mid-2000s) to 15-16% (Fastmarkets, citing national data).

At ISC 2025, ETTF expected consumption growth of about 2.5% in 2025-2026, with a "slight increase" trend for Germany and France and "neutral to slight decrease" for Italy in 2026. Japanese starts were expected to keep falling, and Setra cited 65-80 million vacant apartments in China. Sneck said relief was possible in 2026 at the earliest, mainly in the second half, if raw materials stayed competitive.

Energy costs

Energy matters to sawmills in two ways: as a cost for kiln drying, planing and electricity, and as a market for their by-products (chips, sawdust, bark, pellets).

Eurostat's electricity price statistics for medium non-household consumers (500-2,000 MWh per year) show an EU average, excluding taxes, of €0.1987/kWh in the second half of 2022 (the peak), €0.1938/kWh in the first half of 2023 and €0.1767/kWh in the second half, €0.1575/kWh and €0.1629/kWh in the two halves of 2024, and €0.1511/kWh in the second half of 2025 (Eurostat, data extracted April 2026). The source does not state values for 2020 and 2021 other than that they were relatively stable. The 2025 level is therefore well below the 2022 peak, though the pre-crisis level cannot be quoted from this source.

By-product markets saw dramatic swings. German wood pellet prices peaked at €760/t in September 2022 and were around €500/t in January 2023, falling to €329/t in Germany and €256/t in Austria by the end of 2023 (Holzkurier, January 2024; the pellet price source is not specified). The German pellet market consumed a projected 3.7 million t in 2023, up 4% on 2022 (German Pellets Institute, via Holzkurier). The 2022 pellet price spike boosted by-product revenue for sawmills; it is an interpretation of this article that this partly cushioned the sector in 2022, and the effect reversed when prices normalised in 2023.

Capacity, closures and investment

Holzkurier reported in January 2024 that about 18 sawmill projects for 2023-2025 would add 2.4 million m³ a year of cutting capacity, plus 650,000 m³ a year of CLT and 1.2 million t of pellets. CLT output in DACH, Italy and Czechia hit a record 1.27 million m³ in 2023. Meanwhile Bergkvist Siljan's Mora sawmill (115,000 m³/year) was to close in March 2026 (Fastmarkets). A ScrapMonster summary (September 2026) says Holmen cut Linghem capacity from 72,000 to 26,000 m³/year and called the market the weakest in 30 years; it contains inconsistencies and is treated as unverified.

Outlook statements by institutions

These are forecasts or opinions and may prove wrong.

  • EOS, ISC Oslo, October 2025: the difficult phase that began over three years ago continues; no major changes expected for 2026; relief possible in 2026 at the earliest, mainly in the second half; production stable at about 78 million m³ (Timber Online, 4 November 2025).
  • EOS (EUWID, 8 July 2026): members expect another reduction; size unknown (paywall).
  • ETTF: eight-market consumption of 43.5 million m³ (2025) and 43.9 million m³ (2026); global consumption up about 2.2% in 2026.
  • UNECE COFFI (83rd session, November 2025): UNECE-region softwood sawnwood production rose 4% in 2024 to 254 million m³, forecast -2.2% in 2025 and -1.2% in 2026 (Dovetail Partners summary). The US submitted no statistics (government shutdown) and 21 of 56 members gave trade data, so totals are incomplete. The April 2026 forecast text was not read.
  • Fastmarkets (July 2026): Q3 stable but weak; Q4 expected stable, though storm and fire salvage could pressure prices. Koskisen expects stable sawn timber prices in Q3 2026.

Sources used

Eurostat (for_swpan; electricity price statistics); Destatis via Timber Online, top agrar and Vergabeblog; EOS and ISC reports via Timber Online, EUWID, Fastmarkets, Forest Machine Magazine and Timber Industry News; Luke; Statistics Sweden and Swedish Forest Industries; WKO and Statistik Austria; Forest Research (UK); UNECE/FAO publications (UN iLibrary) and Dovetail Partners summaries; Holzkurier analyses; Duracert (EU sanctions summary); ScrapMonster. URLs are in the structured sources list.

Limits of this article

  • Many figures come from trade-press reports of conference presentations. Where primary EOS or UNECE tables were not accessible, check the original before commercial use.
  • UNECE/FAO review chapters, the 2025-2026 forecast, FAOSTAT forestry data, Thünen publications and Forest Europe's State of Europe's Forests 2026 were not retrieved in usable form and are not quoted.
  • Series are not strictly comparable (EOS coverage changes, Eurostat estimates, national definitions). Eurostat data end in 2024 (Romania 2024 confidential); German quarterly data run to Q1 2026; no full 2025-2026 national annual data were available for most countries on 26 October 2026, and ISC 2026 results were not yet out.
  • Prices are not one index.
  • Causes of national declines (Romania, Latvia) are not established beyond the cited sources; interpretations are labelled.
  • This is not investment advice.
Jak sprawdzono ten tekst · sprawdzono 2026-10-26

Open web sources read one page at a time via WebFetch/WebSearch; Eurostat for_swpan values retrieved per country through the Eurostat dissemination API; trade-press conference reports cross-checked against statistical-office data where possible; own calculations labelled in text; no figures invented.

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  • UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review chapter texts and 2025-2026 COFFI forecast not read; UNECE figures (254 million m3 in 2024; -2.2% 2025; -1.2% 2026; hardwood 2022) come from Dovetail Partners summaries
  • Share of Russian sawnwood exports to China: about 60% (Fastmarkets, 2024) vs 66% (Dovetail summary of COFFI 2025); difference unexplained
  • Holmen/Stora Enso capacity cuts and 'weakest market in 30 years' come from a secondary summary (ScrapMonster) with internal inconsistencies
  • Timber Online teaser items (German softwood exports Jan-Aug 2026 lowest in 11 years; 6 in 10 mills expecting negative business) read as headlines only
  • EU sanctions regulation numbers and dates taken from a consultancy summary (Duracert), not from the EU Official Journal
  • Allegations of circumvention of Russian/Belarusian timber bans (OCCRP, Earthsight) not examined
  • Holzkurier inflation figure (about 20%, 2019-2023) and pellet price series have no stated primary source
  • Statistics Poland Jan-Nov 2023 sawnwood total (2.68 million m3) not reconciled with Eurostat annual total (4.19 million m3 in 2023)
  • EOS hardwood 2019-2021 figures (Timber Industry News) without named statistical source and undated article
  • Fastmarkets definition of 'major European markets' imports (48.2 million m3 in 2024) and of EU extra-EU export value (EUR 6.5 billion) not specified
  • EOS 2025 and earlier aggregates are revised between releases and have varying membership (12 vs 14 countries); series not chainable
  • FAOSTAT, Thuenen and Forest Europe SoEF 2026 not retrieved; Eurostat 2024 values for Romania confidential, Latvia 2024 estimated, Czechia 2020 missing
  • Causes of Romanian and Latvian production declines not verified

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Ostatnia aktualizacja: 2026-10-26

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