Europe's sawn softwood reset: output down 10 percent, consumption down 17 percent, trade rerouted

Introduction

Between 2021 and 2024 the European sawn softwood sector went through one of its sharpest resets in decades. The post-pandemic boom of 2021 was followed by falling construction activity, high interest rates, the loss of Russian and Belarusian supply to many buyers and a shift in the destinations of exported timber. A team from Poznan University of Life Sciences in Poland has now pulled together the available market statistics into a single narrative review in the journal Forests, published on 5 October 2026. It looks at what the 2021-2024 data show, how preliminary 2025 values and the 2026 outlook fit in, and what this might mean for distribution and construction-oriented supply chains.

The authors frame four research questions: how production and reported consumption changed after the 2021 peak; how the gap between production and consumption evolved and how it coincided with changes in export markets; which regional distribution corridors gained prominence after the disruption of Russian and Belarusian supply; and what the 2025-2026 signals imply for species availability and for construction-oriented softwood, given that data on structural-grade volumes are lacking. They argue that macro market statistics, research on timber construction and supply chain reviews are rarely combined into one quantitative interpretation, and this paper tries to close that gap.

For sawmills, the value of the paper lies in its careful treatment of the data. Rather than presenting one tidy "European total", it keeps each source in its original geographic and product scope, and it is explicit about what the numbers can and cannot tell us.

Research methodology

The paper is a narrative review combined with a structured synthesis of secondary data. It is explicitly not a systematic review and makes no claim to follow PRISMA rules or to perform a meta-analysis.

Data sources. The quantitative backbone is the ISC Market Report 2025, built on the EOS/ETTF market survey of 2025. Its European set covers 16 countries (Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom) and also provides a North American comparison. Additional material came from the producers' outlook of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS), the traders' outlook of the European Timber Trade Federation (ETTF), a Baltic outlook for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and presentations from the World Forest and Forest Products Conference (WFFC) in early 2026 on the Central and Eastern European (CEE10) region, global raw materials and the global economy. A set of 36 peer-reviewed references on supply chains, timber construction, value addition, price studies and material flows was used to interpret mechanisms, not to generate numbers.

Scope discipline. The authors do not merge the ISC European set, the EU-27, EOS membership and CEE10. Each is treated as a separate scope, because definitions of product and geography differ.

Calculations. Changes are expressed relative to 2021, which the paper treats as a descriptive reference year after the post-pandemic peak, not as a "normal" baseline. The authors also compute an accounting difference between production and reported consumption (P minus C). They stress that this is not a trade balance, an export surplus or a measure of inventories. Values are labelled by status: reported history (2021-2024), preliminary (2025) and outlook (2026). Some 2026 values in the ISC tables are carry-forwards of 2025 figures or derived from FAOSTAT, and the paper therefore warns that they are not independent forecasts.

Key findings

A substantial reset in volumes. In the ISC European set, production fell from 97.7 million m3 in 2021 to 88.5 million m3 in 2024, a decline of 9.5 percent. Preliminary 2025 production is 88.3 million m3 (9.6 percent below 2021). The 2026 outlook is 88.6 million m3, a rise of only 0.3 percent on 2025. Reported consumption fell much faster, from 82.9 million m3 in 2021 to 66.9 million m3 in 2024 (minus 19.4 percent), recovering slightly to 68.6 million m3 in preliminary 2025 (minus 17.2 percent against 2021). The 2026 outlook is 69.7 million m3, up 1.6 percent on 2025 but still 15.9 percent below 2021.

A widening gap. The difference between production and consumption grew from 14.8 million m3 in 2021 to 21.6 million m3 in 2024 before narrowing in the preliminary 2025 and outlook 2026 numbers. The authors are careful: this indicator cannot identify exports, imports, stock changes, processing losses or reporting changes, so it signals that supply adjusted less than demand without saying how the balance was achieved. The 2026 value is described as an arithmetic result with unresolved input status.

North America. Production in the comparison set fell from 103.6 million m3 in 2021 to 91.6 million m3 in preliminary 2025, with a 2026 outlook of 97.1 million m3. Consumption exceeded production from 2022 onwards.

Country patterns. Production declines were uneven. Germany shows the largest drop, from 25.3 to 21.3 million m3 between 2021 and the 2026 outlook (minus 16.1 percent), while Sweden falls from 19.05 to 17.8 million m3 (minus 6.6 percent), Austria from 10.6 to 10.0 million m3 (minus 5.5 percent) and Poland from 4.25 to 4.0 million m3 (minus 5.9 percent). Finland is nearly flat (11.9 to 11.7 million m3, minus 1.7 percent) and Latvia is the only country in the selected group above its 2021 level (2.7 to 2.935 million m3, plus 8.7 percent). In the data used, Finnish output rose from 10.4 million m3 in 2023 to 11.7 million m3 in preliminary 2025.

Export markets diversified. According to Eurostat-based EOS figures, extra-EU export value was above EUR 9.5 billion in 2022, about one third lower (EUR 6.35 billion) in 2023, then roughly 2 percent higher in 2024. In the first half of 2025 it was 13 percent above the first half of 2024. The shares of extra-EU export value in that half-year were about 26 percent for the United Kingdom, more than 16.5 percent for the United States, 9.4 percent for Japan, 6.4 percent for Egypt and 2.2 percent for China. Year on year, exports to the US grew 19 percent to EUR 620 million and to Egypt 8 percent to EUR 240 million, while Japan fell 7 percent to EUR 350 million and China fell 37 percent to EUR 85 million. The authors read this as a marked decline in China's role for EU sawn softwood. These are value data for one half-year only, and no 2026 export forecast is available.

Baltic re-routing. Estonia is the clearest example of changed sourcing. Its imports from Russia and Belarus fell from 1.002 million m3 in 2021 to 0.433 million m3 in 2022 and to zero in 2023 and 2024. Imports from Finland rose from 0.404 to 0.640 million m3 over the period, and Sweden and Latvia also supplied more. Estonian production moved from 1.70 million m3 (2021) to 1.31 million m3 (2023) and 1.46 million m3 (2024), and consumption stayed above domestic output. Latvia is an export-oriented system with roughly 2.6 million m3 produced from sawlogs and main destinations in the United Kingdom, Germany, Estonia, Lithuania and the Netherlands. Lithuania's 2024 imports were 0.883 million m3 (plus 4 percent) and exports 0.464 million m3 (plus 14 percent). The paper notes it cannot separate the effect of sanctions from prices and stock effects.

CEE10 as a corridor region. The CEE10 group averages around 16 million m3 of coniferous sawnwood production, 13 million m3 apparent consumption, 7 million m3 exports and 4 million m3 imports. Romania and Czechia are described as export-driven, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia as structural importers. Road and rail links to Western Europe and access to North Sea, Baltic, Adriatic and Black Sea ports give several routes, but the paper does not quantify their cost or capacity. It only says the corridors may facilitate redirection of flows, for example towards the Middle East and North Africa.

Import markets and the 2026 outlook. The ETTF figures for eight continental importing markets sum to 18.1 million m3 in 2025 and 18.3 million m3 in 2026 (plus 1.4 percent), though the sum may include intra-group flows. Germany's imports are projected to rise from 3.6 to 3.8 million m3 and France's from 2.05 to 2.15 million m3, while Italy's fall from 4.28 to 4.14 million m3. The United Kingdom stays flat at 5.84 million m3. For the United States, imports are forecast to fall from 24.6 to 21.95 million m3 as domestic production rises from 61.0 to 66.5 million m3. Construction is expected to recover gradually in Germany and France, more positively in Denmark and the Netherlands and Spain, and to stay weak or stable in Italy.

Species and raw material. The outlook points to tighter spruce availability in parts of Central Europe as bark beetle salvage fellings wind down and climate constraints change harvesting, with more pine used in Central Europe and southern Sweden. Energy wood and panel production also compete with sawmills for raw material, especially in CEE. The authors found no harmonised data on strength-graded structural timber, so they make no estimate of structural volumes and do not infer one-for-one substitution of spruce by pine, since similar strength classes do not guarantee equal grading yield, durability, treatability, dimensions or market acceptance.

Practical applications for sawmills

From the paper (the authors' own observations and cautious implications):

• The authors suggest that species flexibility, processing depth, route options, traceability and market diversification may improve resilience, but they state these are interpretive points and were not tested.
• Sources for sawlogs and customers have moved: Baltic mills turned to Nordic and intra-Baltic supply, and EU exporters leaned more on the UK, US, Japan and Egypt.
• Where requirements allow, the paper points to species flexibility, selective movement towards higher-value processing, use of Baltic and CEE logistics options when transport economics favour them, and stronger demand monitoring.
• The authors recommend that research quantify grading yield for spruce and pine, freight and port costs for alternative routes and the construction share of sawn output.

Portal interpretation (not claims of the paper):

• A mill planning its 2027 volumes may find it useful to compare its own customer mix with the half-year 2025 destination shares reported here. A heavy reliance on a single non-EU market, for example China, now looks more exposed than the early 2020s suggested.
• Because the 2026 production outlook is essentially flat and parts of it are carry-forwards, buyers' demand signals and local log availability probably tell a mill more than the headline outlook.
• A pine-friendly sawline, with the ability to grade and dry both species, could be a hedge if spruce becomes tighter regionally. Whether the market will accept pine for a specific product still has to be checked with customers.
• Mills near corridors in the Baltic or CEE regions may want to evaluate port and rail options now, since the paper highlights these routes but gives no cost data.

Limitations

The authors list their own limitations clearly, and the most important are these:

• Source aggregates differ in geographic scope and product definition, so the datasets cannot be added together.
• The 2026 ISC values are partly carry-forwards of 2025 or FAOSTAT-derived values, and none of the cited forecasts offers confidence intervals, probability distributions or alternative scenarios. Small year-on-year changes in 2025-2026 should be read as tentative.
• The production minus consumption indicator says nothing about trade, stocks or reporting changes.
• Export data are value-based and cover only the first half of 2025. Import totals are not split into intra-EU and extra-EU origin.
• No harmonised data exist for structural-grade timber, so construction-specific conclusions remain qualitative.
• One figure on Estonian imports comes from a chart for which no numeric workbook was available.
• The review is narrative, not an exhaustive search, and non-European studies are used only as context.
• One author is employed by a sawmill-related company in Poland; the paper declares this and reports no external funding.
• Only part of the paper text was read in preparing this summary (the final part, mainly references and back matter, was not retrieved), and the supplementary file was not available.

Conclusions

The paper concludes that the source-defined European market has undergone a substantial post-2021 reset: production is about 10 percent below the 2021 peak and consumption more than 17 percent below it in preliminary 2025, and only a small recovery is outlined for 2026. The widened gap between production and consumption is a warning sign about supply adjusting more slowly than demand, but it does not identify how the balance was achieved. Export value in early 2025 was spread across several destinations, with the UK and US leading and China losing weight. Baltic sourcing changed structurally after 2022. For construction, the main signal is tighter spruce availability in parts of Central Europe and more use of pine, without any claim of straightforward substitution. The 2026 outlook is geographically uneven, and the authors call for better, linked and machine-readable data to turn these first observations into firmer conclusions.

Original research

• Authors: Arkadiusz Gronowski, Katarzyna Mydlarz, Maciej Skorupski, Marek Wieruszewski
• Title: European Sawn Softwood Market in Transition: 2021-2024 Evidence and a 2025-2026 Outlook on Production, Trade Reorientation, and Distribution Pathways
• Journal: Forests, Volume 17, Issue 10, Article 1194
• Year: 2026 (published 5 October 2026)
• DOI: 10.3390/f17101194
• Link: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/17/10/1194
• Licence: Open access, CC BY (the page metadata lists CC BY 3.0)

This article is an independent summary prepared by the portal; the original paper should be consulted for the full tables, definitions and caveats.