Reading the European sawn softwood market before you quote

Before you price an export order you need a picture of the market it enters. The portal's market articles describe a sharp cycle: records in 2020-2021 (strong renovation, US demand and a flood of bark-beetle salvage logs), then falling prices from late 2021, then the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russian and Belarusian timber and an energy price shock. Since 2023 consumption has been weak and, in the north, log costs high.

Production fell less than consumption

A 2026 review in the journal Forests (Poznan University of Life Sciences) pulled together the market statistics for a 16-country European set. It stresses that these figures are one source's scope and cannot be added to EOS, EU-27 or other totals.

Production in 2024 was about 9.5% below 2021, while consumption was about 19.4% below. The gap between the two grew. The authors warn that this "P minus C" figure is an accounting difference, not an export surplus, because it cannot separate trade, stock changes or reporting changes. It signals only that supply adjusted more slowly than demand. The 2026 values partly carry forward 2025 figures, so small changes should be read as tentative.

Where extra-EU exports go

For EU sawn softwood exports outside the EU, Fastmarkets (citing EU trade data) and the review give these shares for 2024 and half-year changes for the first half of 2025:

The UK share comes on a slightly different basis from the others, and the half-year data cover value only. Treat the table as a direction, not a forecast.

Worked example: what did China buy a year earlier?

China "fell 37% to EUR 85 million". If the new value is 63% of the old one, the old value was 85 / 0.63, about EUR 135 million. The fall is about EUR 50 million. For the US, 620 / 1.19 gives about EUR 521 million a year earlier. A mill that depended on one non-EU market in the early 2020s looks more exposed today than it did then; the review makes the same point about heavy reliance on China.

Competition from Russia

Fastmarkets reports Russian exports of about 18.7 million m³ in 2024, roughly 40% below 2019, with most going to China and 1.7 million m³ to the Middle East and North Africa (including 550,000 m³ to Egypt). The share going to China is given as about 60% in one source and 66% in another summary, and the difference is unexplained. The practical lesson is that in Egypt and similar markets you compete with redirected Russian supply.

Prices and costs

In November 2025, delivered German spruce sawfalling (44-50 x 150 mm) was EUR 310-325/m³, French EUR 290-325/m³ and UK EUR 295-315/m³; Nordic timber in Germany was EUR 50-60/m³ cheaper (Fastmarkets). These are trade-press assessments from one source, not an index. The core problem described by the industry (EOS) is high log cost against weak lumber prices. EOS said relief was possible in 2026 at the earliest, mainly in the second half.

Sales planning checklist

• List your last 12 months of shipments by destination and compute each share.
• Note any market above about one third of your volume.
• For each target market, write down the trend (growing, flat, falling), your competitors there, and the compliance layers involved.
• Do not quote forecasts as facts; label them with their source and date.

Key points

• European consumption fell much faster than production after 2021, leaving a wide production-minus-consumption gap that is not an export figure.
• EU extra-EU shares (2024): US 16.5%, Japan 9.4%, Egypt 6.4%, China 2.2%; UK about 26% of non-EU deliveries on a different basis.
• In H1 2025, exports to the US rose 19% and to China fell 37%; these are half-year value data.
• Russian supply redirected to China and the Middle East and North Africa competes with European exporters.
• Calculate your own destination shares and avoid dependence on a single non-EU market.