HARDWOOD CROSS-LAMINATED TIMBER PRODUCTION

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Abstract

The building construction industry is experiencing a shift towards more sustainable materials such as Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT). In the U.S., CLT is predominantly manufactured from softwoods such as southern yellow pine, of which about 60% of the demand are sourced domestically. Kentucky lies in the central hardwood region with abundant hardwood species, which have desirable qualities for CLT production. This research assesses hardwood timber supply for CLT production and the associated potential economy-wide impacts in Kentucky. First, it uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) multi-panel inventory periods data from 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2021 and growth-to-drain ratio approach to evaluate timber supply and sustainability by comparing annual net growth with annual timber removals. Second, it applies Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model framework to assess the potential economic impact of hardwood CLT production under two experimental shocks (i) increased intermediate input demand for CLT facility construction, and (ii) increased intermediate input demand for CLT manufacturing. Results revealed that total growth-to-drain ratios consistently exceed unity (2.0 in 2009, 2.9 in 2014, 3.4 in 2021), demonstrating that forest growth outpaces removals and hardwood resources are sustainably available. Grade-specific analysis revealed that lower-grade (Grade 3) trees exhibit the highest growth-to-drain ratios, representing substantial underutilized timber suitable for CLT. Higher-grade trees (Grades 1 and 2) ratios approached near unity, reflecting sustained demand for premium products. Sensitivity analyses simulating potential CLT production and potential expansion showed that total growth-to-drain ratios remain above 1.0 with lower grades exhibiting the highest ratios. In terms of economic impacts, there was an increase in output quantities across all the industries. The overall household welfare impacts under both experiments were $785 million and $3.3 million respectively. These findings indicate sustainable timber supply of low-grade timber to support hardwood CLT production. They also demonstrate that hardwood CLT production can stimulate timber utilization, support industrial growth and generate economic benefits. Overall, the findings of this study can guide policymakers in designing sustainable hardwood timber management, support hardwood CLT production and CLT integration into regional construction planning.

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